Developing Future Strategies and Scenarios for the Taekwondo Federation
Keywords:
Strategy, Futures Studies, Taekwondo, Scenario WritingAbstract
This study aimed to identify key drivers, develop future scenarios, and formulate strategic directions for the development of the Taekwondo Federation over a ten-year horizon using a futures studies and scenario-planning approach. This applied mixed-methods study employed both qualitative and quantitative approaches. In the qualitative phase, Schwartz’s scenario-planning method and semi-structured interviews were conducted with 20 experts in taekwondo, sports management, and futures studies who were selected through purposive and snowball sampling. Following the identification and refinement of key drivers, cross-impact analysis was performed using MICMAC software, and future scenarios were developed through Scenario Wizard. Content validity and expert review were used to establish the validity of the research instruments. The cross-impact analysis identified 24 key factors influencing the future development of Iranian taekwondo. Structural matrix analysis achieved 100% optimization after two iterations, indicating a high level of model stability. Four variables—future-oriented management in taekwondo, federation revenue generation, meritocracy and merit-based selection, and the growth of artificial intelligence technology—demonstrated the highest levels of direct and indirect influence and dependence, emerging as the principal critical uncertainties and driving forces. Based on these drivers, two major future scenarios, namely the “Matrix World” and the “Champion’s Decline,” were developed. Furthermore, strategic corridor analysis indicated that adopting a future-oriented management approach supported by emerging technologies represents the most favorable strategic pathway for the federation. The future success of the Taekwondo Federation largely depends on its capacity to institutionalize future-oriented management, integrate artificial intelligence technologies, establish merit-based governance systems, and create sustainable revenue streams. Emphasizing these strategic drivers can facilitate the realization of the preferred scenario, strengthen international competitiveness, and support the sustainable development of Iranian taekwondo.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Mir Soleyman Mousavi (Author); Ali Mohammad Safania; Shiva Azadfada (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
